Like the cars, semiconductors, and the Internet, the solar PV industry is experiencing cyclical shocks, facing the greatest uncertainty and risks in history. At present, there are more than 750 solar PV companies in the book. After this round of shuffling, almost all enterprises will fall to the floor. Whoever is kneeling, who is kneeling, who stands, depends on its own mode and intrinsic ability.

For the Chinese solar photovoltaic enterprises with a short history, the experience of industrial development is very small, and the grasp of future trends is more dependent on their own exploration. Fang Peng, CEO of Jingao Energy Holdings Co., Ltd. said that the difficulties encountered at present are temporary, and in the long run, they should be optimistic.

In the last two years: in 2010, the growth rate of the industry was about 135%. Even in 2011, which was called the winter, it still grew by about 40%, which is quite high compared with other industries. The reporter interviewed a number of CEOs and executives of solar photovoltaic companies and shared their judgments on the future trend of the solar photovoltaic industry with the industry.

Accelerating the pace of commercialization

In 2012, the upstream industry will be better than last year. Last year was the worst year. The downstream price has already dropped, but the upstream price has not moved, so the middle reaches are greatly squeezed. However, after the fourth quarter of last year, silicon wafers and silicon materials have fallen sharply. This year, for the battery and photovoltaic module industries, it is in a relatively balanced state.

The global solar PV market will generally be good. Recently, there have been many negative news from Europe, such as subsidies, etc. I don’t think it is necessary to understand from the negative. Why do you want to decline? The bigger the scale, the more market-oriented, the less subsidies will be. This is a good thing. The industry is driven by the government and becomes market-driven. Solar energy is not far from the second spring.

From the perspective of the industry development cycle, integration should be carried out every few years, but China's solar energy is difficult to integrate. There is no forecast in this market. There is no long-term planning. Many companies only see good profits and make large-scale entries. After a large-scale surplus, it has a great impact on small businesses, and then wage wars to disrupt the entire market price.

However, this kind of interference cannot exist for a long time. Finally, it must be integrated. In the future, the terminal market will become more and more concentrated. It is difficult for suppliers to have quality requirements, capital requirements, management requirements, small enterprises or non-standard enterprises. Moreover, their funding channels have been broken, and listing is impossible. Because the market is mature, small enterprises lacking in scale will be out, but they will be out of the game for a relatively slow time. It may take two or three cycles, but it can’t be consumed. When you choose, you will choose to leave.

Brand and management are becoming more and more important

I believe that solar PV will also expand its development and influence within the world. Domestic production companies must pay attention to cost control, new product development, and brand building. At the same time, we must deal with the appreciation of the renminbi, the general trend of the depreciation of the euro, and the increasingly serious anti-dumping investigations and games.

In 2011, there were many blind behaviors in the industry. Transient supply was far greater than demand, but high inventory was a temporary phenomenon and has now been greatly eased. Due to the pressure of production costs, most of the low-lying companies are production-oriented enterprises and those who are under-prepared for market changes.

For the domestic production-oriented enterprises, it is time for this transformation. Cost control is a big core, and it needs to deepen internal power. In the previous crazy expansion, the management was not very careful, and the talents and equipment purchased at high prices did not play a role in the face of the crisis. For those companies that have established international brands, it is recommended that they continue to maintain their own brands and increase investment brands, and do not let this advantage be lost in the face of the crisis.

The products of photovoltaic component companies are too single, and it is necessary to increase the development of new products. To sum up, cost reduction in production and management, and increased investment in branding and R&D. Of course, there is another argument in the industry that says mergers and acquisitions of overseas project companies and engineering companies. My judgment is that mergers and acquisitions are easy, and management and integration are difficult. Need to have a strong operational ability, to have a team to accumulate, rather than spend energy on it, it is better to do the best production, R & D and brand building.

Market diversification

It is difficult to predict in the European market. The European debt crisis is still fermenting. What everyone can foresee will not be resolved in a short time. This will affect the policy of solar photovoltaics in various countries. In Germany, a policy of two months is changing rapidly. At present, the PV market depends to a large extent on the stability of the policy. The uncertainty of the European market in the future is relatively large. Italy, Germany and France are not very optimistic. On the contrary, some Central European countries such as Bulgaria and the Czech Republic may There is growth, so in general, Europe will fall by about 10%. Germany and Italy will lose more and rely on other countries to make up for it. This is a rough estimate of the European market.

The United States is also a big market, but now the components have to be taxed, parts and components must be taxed, and the double-reverse can not be solved for a while. Even if there is a factory in the United States, its quantity can not meet the demand. For China's solar photovoltaic companies, what should we do? If we invest in factories overseas to supply the demand of the US market, we still give up this market. I don't think everyone will give up. Although emerging markets such as Asia, Africa and the Middle East are just getting started, they will become more and more important.

Future solar power generation will be very promising. The current supply and demand is not really a big demand, but the demand has not been dug up. First, I have not really integrated into the power grid. For example, I have a villa and want to install two solar photovoltaic panels. Like European countries, I use solar energy to generate electricity for myself. I can use electricity to integrate into the power grid and sell it to the country. When it is not enough, buy it from the power grid. This can't be realized in China. Second, it is still relying on the government to eat, and it has not achieved real commercialization. These must be solved by time.